***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.6 10.4 0.4 55.8 54.1 6.8 8.2 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.6 8.5 10.1 0.4 56.9 54.7 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.5 10.5 0.5 57.7 55.5 9.0 10.1 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.7 7.4 0.2 52.8 51.9 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.5 7.7 0.2 53.2 52.6 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.7 5.9 0.1 51.1 51.2 5.7 6.6 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 6.8 8.5 10.1 0.3 55.3 53.6 7.0 8.1 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 3.1 3.0 6.1 0.4 55.6 54.8 1.7 2.7 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.0 8.5 8.1 0.3 53.9 53.4 7.2 8.2 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.2 6.7 0.3 54.5 53.9 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.7 7.0 0.2 53.4 52.9 6.6 7.5 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.8 6.4 0.3 54.6 53.8 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.1 6.0 0.0 50.2 50.5 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.8 8.2 0.4 55.8 54.3 7.5 8.5 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.5 8.4 0.1 51.7 51.1 7.7 8.4 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.5 6.5 0.1 51.3 51.1 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 7.1 8.5 9.7 0.3 54.9 53.3 7.3 8.3 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.3 6.0 0.3 54.9 54.3 6.1 7.0 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.6 10.2 0.5 58.2 55.6 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.6 4.5 0.3 54.1 53.9 2.4 3.4 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.1 7.9 9.5 0.3 55.0 53.8 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.7 9.7 0.4 56.9 54.8 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.2 10.0 0.5 58.7 56.1 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.9 7.8 0.4 55.7 54.5 6.6 7.6 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 6.7 8.4 9.0 0.2 53.3 52.4 7.0 8.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.6 6.0 0.2 53.4 53.1 6.6 7.5 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.3 8.4 9.7 0.2 53.6 52.6 6.5 8.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.7 6.9 7.5 0.1 51.7 51.2 5.9 6.8 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.4 5.6 0.3 54.2 53.9 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.8 10.3 0.5 57.2 54.9 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------