***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 10.6 10.3 12.3 0.5 63.3 59.3 9.0 9.7 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 10.6 10.5 12.0 0.7 68.1 62.5 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 12.6 12.5 12.5 0.7 69.2 63.6 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 8.0 7.8 9.6 0.5 64.0 60.8 6.7 7.3 7.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.2 9.9 0.3 57.3 55.5 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.2 7.8 0.2 55.5 54.9 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.5 12.1 0.7 67.8 62.4 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.4 7.9 0.4 61.5 59.1 3.4 4.0 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.1 10.0 0.2 55.1 54.2 9.2 9.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.9 8.7 0.3 59.7 57.9 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.4 9.3 0.3 57.4 55.9 8.4 9.1 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.4 8.5 0.3 59.4 57.8 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.4 7.9 -0.2 44.6 46.5 7.9 8.6 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.5 10.1 0.4 62.3 59.4 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 10.6 10.6 10.9 0.6 66.8 63.0 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.0 8.6 0.1 52.3 52.4 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.5 11.7 0.6 66.8 61.5 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 9.3 8.9 8.0 0.4 61.0 59.1 7.7 8.5 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 10.5 10.6 12.2 0.8 71.6 65.0 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.1 6.4 0.3 57.5 56.2 4.1 4.8 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.7 11.3 0.3 57.2 55.4 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 9.7 9.7 11.8 0.7 69.4 63.5 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 10.2 10.5 12.3 1.0 75.9 68.3 8.7 9.3 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 10.0 9.7 9.9 0.5 63.3 60.3 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.2 11.0 0.2 56.4 54.5 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.8 7.7 0.0 50.5 51.1 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 9.0 10.4 11.6 0.3 56.7 54.9 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.8 9.7 0.4 61.4 59.1 7.7 8.3 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.9 8.0 7.5 0.4 60.8 58.7 7.0 7.6 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 10.9 10.9 12.4 0.8 70.0 64.0 9.3 10.0 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------