***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 25.2 28.6 27.5 4.8 96.0 93.5 21.1 22.6 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 25.9 29.8 28.1 5.4 96.7 94.2 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 25.9 29.2 27.9 5.0 95.5 93.1 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 19.0 21.8 23.9 4.1 94.1 91.6 14.7 16.3 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 26.4 28.3 24.7 3.4 89.2 86.6 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 25.5 26.7 22.2 2.8 84.7 82.4 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 25.4 29.1 27.8 5.2 96.3 93.5 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 15.3 16.6 22.4 3.1 86.4 84.4 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 26.1 28.0 25.4 3.4 88.8 86.7 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 25.8 27.4 23.5 3.2 86.7 84.6 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 26.1 27.6 24.9 3.2 87.1 84.7 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 25.6 27.1 23.5 3.1 86.8 84.7 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 26.6 27.8 24.3 2.9 84.7 82.4 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 26.4 30.1 26.4 4.8 95.1 92.6 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 26.1 29.5 26.6 4.4 96.7 94.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 27.1 28.6 24.4 3.2 87.5 85.1 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 25.0 28.5 27.5 5.3 95.9 93.0 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 25.2 27.2 23.1 3.7 89.9 87.5 20.8 22.4 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 25.7 29.7 28.3 5.5 96.9 94.6 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 21.4 23.1 20.9 3.3 88.3 86.1 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 25.9 27.9 26.4 3.7 90.6 88.3 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 26.0 29.4 27.2 4.9 94.7 91.8 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 25.9 30.5 28.5 5.8 97.7 95.7 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 26.0 28.7 25.9 4.3 93.2 90.7 21.5 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 25.5 27.8 25.5 3.9 92.5 89.7 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 26.6 28.4 23.3 3.4 88.4 86.1 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 25.4 28.4 26.5 4.4 94.6 91.8 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 26.4 28.9 24.8 3.8 92.9 90.6 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 20.9 23.0 22.4 3.6 89.6 87.1 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 25.6 29.4 28.1 5.3 96.6 94.1 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------