***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 23.8 23.5 23.1 1.3 66.2 62.1 20.7 22.1 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 24.1 23.9 23.2 1.4 68.1 62.9 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 24.3 23.9 23.3 1.3 66.0 61.9 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 17.2 16.6 20.2 1.0 62.8 59.7 13.9 15.5 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 21.0 23.5 20.8 0.5 55.9 55.5 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.3 18.7 0.3 53.3 53.7 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 23.6 23.4 23.1 1.4 67.6 62.4 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.4 19.0 0.5 55.6 55.3 10.4 11.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 20.8 23.0 21.3 0.4 55.3 55.1 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.8 19.9 0.5 55.5 55.3 20.6 22.2 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 20.8 23.1 20.8 0.4 55.4 55.1 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.6 20.0 0.5 56.5 55.8 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 21.1 23.3 20.2 0.3 54.1 54.7 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.2 23.5 21.5 0.8 60.4 58.8 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 24.3 24.1 22.1 1.4 67.8 62.5 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 21.7 24.0 20.5 0.5 55.8 55.6 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 23.2 23.0 22.6 1.2 66.0 61.5 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.2 19.4 0.6 57.3 56.7 20.0 21.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 23.9 23.8 23.4 1.5 68.6 63.3 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 15.8 18.1 17.2 0.5 55.7 56.0 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 20.7 23.2 22.2 0.6 57.1 56.3 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 24.1 23.6 22.5 1.1 63.8 60.5 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 24.1 24.1 23.5 1.6 69.9 64.3 20.9 22.4 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 23.0 23.3 21.5 0.9 60.4 58.7 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 23.7 22.9 21.2 0.7 59.3 57.7 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 24.4 23.8 19.9 1.0 62.5 60.1 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 23.7 23.2 22.2 1.0 63.3 60.3 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 23.6 24.0 20.9 1.0 62.3 59.3 21.3 22.9 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.5 18.6 0.5 55.8 55.9 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 23.8 23.7 23.4 1.5 68.4 63.1 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------