***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 19.7 21.3 20.8 0.1 51.5 50.3 20.0 21.2 22.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 20.2 21.8 21.1 0.5 55.8 53.2 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 20.1 21.7 21.2 0.2 52.9 51.3 20.4 21.5 22.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 12.1 14.2 18.4 -0.1 48.9 49.0 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 19.9 21.1 18.9 -0.5 44.4 45.9 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 19.0 20.4 17.2 -0.3 46.3 48.0 19.3 20.7 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 19.9 21.5 21.0 0.5 55.7 53.2 20.1 21.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.9 11.1 17.7 -0.2 47.0 47.6 10.1 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.0 21.1 19.3 -0.5 44.5 45.9 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 19.6 20.9 18.4 -0.3 46.2 47.0 19.9 21.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.1 21.3 18.8 -0.4 45.5 46.6 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 19.4 20.8 18.6 -0.2 47.2 47.9 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 20.4 21.8 18.1 -0.3 46.5 47.6 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 20.7 22.1 19.6 0.0 50.4 49.8 20.9 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 19.2 21.1 19.2 0.1 51.8 51.2 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 20.8 22.1 18.6 -0.3 46.5 47.5 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 19.5 21.1 20.7 0.4 55.2 52.8 19.8 20.8 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 19.3 20.7 18.2 -0.1 48.7 48.5 19.6 20.8 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 20.0 21.7 21.2 0.5 56.0 53.3 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 16.0 17.4 16.0 -0.1 49.0 48.9 16.3 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.0 21.1 20.0 -0.4 45.6 46.5 20.3 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 20.3 21.9 20.7 0.4 54.9 52.4 20.5 21.6 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 20.3 22.0 21.3 0.5 56.0 53.3 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 20.3 21.7 19.6 0.0 50.0 49.5 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 19.4 20.6 18.8 -0.3 46.1 46.8 19.7 20.9 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 20.1 22.0 18.6 0.4 55.2 53.1 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 19.8 21.2 19.9 0.0 49.6 49.0 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 19.1 21.1 18.7 -0.1 49.3 49.5 19.6 21.1 22.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 15.2 16.6 17.4 -0.2 47.9 48.1 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 19.9 21.6 21.1 0.5 55.7 53.1 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------