***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 22.3 22.7 22.7 1.7 79.9 72.4 20.5 21.3 22.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 22.7 23.4 23.0 2.0 83.4 74.8 20.9 21.7 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 22.8 23.3 23.0 1.8 80.5 72.7 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 15.8 16.0 19.9 1.3 75.0 68.8 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 22.9 22.8 20.5 0.9 66.6 62.7 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 22.2 22.0 18.6 0.8 64.8 61.8 20.4 21.3 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 22.3 22.9 22.8 1.9 82.6 74.1 20.6 21.3 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.4 18.9 0.9 66.6 62.5 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 22.7 22.6 21.0 0.8 66.0 62.3 21.0 21.8 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 22.5 22.3 19.7 0.9 66.2 62.3 20.6 21.5 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 22.8 22.7 20.5 0.8 66.1 62.3 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 22.3 22.3 19.8 0.9 67.5 63.1 20.5 21.4 22.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.6 23.1 19.9 0.8 64.5 61.1 21.4 22.3 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 23.2 23.6 21.4 1.5 76.7 69.3 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 22.7 23.1 21.4 1.6 80.0 72.7 20.8 21.6 22.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 23.7 23.6 20.2 0.9 67.0 63.1 22.0 22.8 23.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 22.0 22.5 22.5 1.8 81.7 73.6 20.2 21.0 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 21.8 21.9 19.4 1.1 70.1 64.7 20.0 20.8 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 22.6 23.3 23.1 2.0 84.0 75.2 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 18.4 18.3 17.2 0.9 68.2 63.3 16.6 17.4 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 22.7 22.7 21.8 1.0 69.0 64.3 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 22.8 23.3 22.3 1.7 79.7 71.9 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 22.8 23.7 23.3 2.1 85.6 76.1 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 22.8 23.1 21.2 1.4 74.9 68.2 20.9 21.7 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 22.1 22.2 20.8 1.1 71.1 65.8 20.6 21.3 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 23.1 23.4 19.7 1.3 74.7 67.8 21.1 22.1 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 22.4 22.7 21.8 1.5 76.6 69.8 20.7 21.5 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 22.9 23.1 20.4 1.3 74.1 68.5 20.8 21.8 22.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.6 18.6 1.0 68.7 63.6 15.8 16.6 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 22.5 23.1 23.0 2.0 83.3 74.7 20.7 21.4 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------