***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 95 5 0 100 1.4 0.5 1.6 10.2 9.1 5.9 3.3 6.5 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 1.8 0.7 1.9 13.0 10.6 6.5 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 1.9 0.7 1.5 10.3 8.6 6.0 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 1.8 0.6 2.1 12.0 10.3 6.8 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 93 7 0 100 1.0 0.2 1.5 10.0 7.9 6.1 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 1.4 0.8 2.0 12.0 10.6 6.9 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 1.9 0.9 1.8 12.2 10.6 5.5 4.1 7.8 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 2.1 0.5 2.5 13.8 8.5 7.5 4.7 10.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 95 5 0 100 1.2 0.2 1.4 8.9 7.0 5.7 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 1.7 0.5 2.2 11.6 7.4 6.6 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 1.1 0.4 2.0 14.1 11.5 7.5 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 1.3 0.5 2.0 13.5 10.1 7.3 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 1.4 0.5 1.8 11.8 10.8 6.8 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 92 8 0 100 1.7 0.5 2.5 13.5 9.9 8.0 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 1.1 0.6 1.9 12.2 14.4 8.1 2.6 5.9 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 1.0 0.5 1.9 13.4 11.3 7.0 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 2.1 1.0 1.8 12.4 10.3 6.4 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 90 10 0 100 1.6 0.4 2.6 13.1 8.1 8.0 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 1.5 0.6 2.0 13.8 10.9 7.3 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 2.1 0.4 2.9 14.7 7.9 8.9 4.1 8.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 1.2 0.1 1.2 7.6 5.9 4.9 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 1.3 0.6 1.8 12.7 11.2 7.1 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 1.6 0.7 2.2 14.9 11.3 8.0 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 1.6 0.4 2.1 12.0 9.1 7.5 3.7 8.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 1.6 0.5 1.5 8.9 8.0 5.7 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 1.6 1.0 2.0 12.9 11.6 6.9 3.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 94 6 0 100 1.4 0.5 1.7 10.1 9.5 6.1 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 1.1 0.5 1.9 12.2 12.3 7.2 2.6 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 2.6 0.6 3.0 15.2 8.7 8.6 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 1.0 0.3 1.7 11.7 9.7 6.1 2.4 5.5 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------