***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.0 7.4 11.2 105.4 67.0 44.3 2.1 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.9 8.1 9.3 90.6 62.8 41.2 2.1 4.8 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.0 10.5 11.4 106.3 67.2 43.7 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.0 20.3 13.0 112.4 69.4 46.5 6.0 11.3 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.8 13.2 11.7 110.3 68.4 46.4 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.6 10.5 12.4 96.2 63.9 43.1 2.7 6.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 2.0 8.4 9.0 87.7 61.8 40.8 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.2 16.9 13.4 108.6 67.6 47.7 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.3 11.3 12.1 110.8 68.3 46.4 3.3 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.1 12.5 13.2 108.6 67.6 47.6 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.8 12.2 11.5 105.3 67.2 45.4 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.0 11.8 11.5 103.8 66.6 45.2 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.8 10.5 11.4 95.8 64.2 44.1 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.9 15.5 14.3 101.2 65.7 45.4 4.9 9.4 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.7 15.4 14.0 120.9 71.7 44.2 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.3 9.9 11.3 99.7 65.7 44.0 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.0 6.5 8.0 75.4 57.4 38.6 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 13.7 14.9 114.2 68.9 48.9 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 2.4 9.4 10.1 95.7 64.3 41.9 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 16.7 18.2 116.5 69.4 50.2 4.7 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.2 11.1 11.7 112.8 68.9 44.9 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.6 7.9 9.2 81.4 59.2 39.1 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.9 11.4 11.4 100.8 65.8 43.1 3.1 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.6 12.4 13.9 111.1 68.1 46.5 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.3 11.5 12.1 108.7 68.1 45.9 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.1 10.9 11.4 95.3 64.5 43.4 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.1 7.6 11.6 106.2 67.3 45.0 2.1 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 4.0 15.7 13.3 116.6 70.6 45.2 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.9 19.3 16.0 116.2 69.2 49.7 6.1 10.9 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.0 8.6 10.3 99.1 65.4 42.7 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------