***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.6 11.9 12.8 104.4 66.6 45.5 2.4 5.8 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.6 12.4 12.0 105.3 66.6 45.3 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.9 16.3 13.5 113.0 68.9 46.8 3.6 7.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.4 19.9 15.6 111.4 69.1 47.7 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.0 13.8 14.1 104.8 67.1 47.1 3.8 7.6 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 5.0 15.7 13.4 94.5 64.3 46.9 5.0 9.7 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.9 10.6 11.8 103.0 66.2 45.1 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.5 21.7 14.6 101.3 65.9 49.0 7.7 13.6 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.9 14.8 14.1 104.7 67.0 46.8 3.6 8.0 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.2 15.6 14.7 101.4 65.9 48.1 3.9 8.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.3 12.5 13.4 103.5 66.8 46.9 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.2 13.7 13.3 104.0 66.9 47.6 3.0 6.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.5 16.7 14.3 107.1 67.9 48.1 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.0 21.6 16.6 116.6 69.7 51.7 4.1 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.8 14.0 16.9 121.4 71.9 46.8 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.9 13.0 13.6 106.0 67.7 47.4 2.8 6.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.0 8.5 12.6 108.2 67.6 46.3 2.1 4.4 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 18.7 16.2 106.5 67.2 51.3 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.5 14.0 12.5 108.5 67.4 46.0 3.0 7.0 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 16.7 18.6 102.1 65.9 52.8 5.1 9.8 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.4 16.4 13.6 108.1 67.9 46.8 4.1 8.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.2 11.4 13.2 108.0 67.5 47.4 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.9 14.1 13.3 112.1 68.4 47.3 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.9 20.2 15.9 117.5 70.2 51.7 3.8 9.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.2 15.3 14.2 104.0 66.7 47.2 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.4 17.4 14.7 111.1 69.2 48.6 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.5 13.0 13.1 102.0 65.9 45.8 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.5 11.0 14.8 110.6 69.2 46.7 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.3 24.8 17.3 109.8 68.0 53.2 6.8 13.4 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.1 11.8 12.2 105.2 66.7 45.0 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------