***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 23.0 28.3 35.4 69.0 38.3 35.0 25.0 36.4 50.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 22.3 27.2 32.6 68.9 38.1 34.6 24.1 35.1 48.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 28.1 35.7 36.1 72.3 40.6 36.2 30.3 42.8 57.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 37.9 50.8 41.8 73.4 43.1 38.2 41.0 58.3 78.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 27.8 35.3 37.6 72.3 41.0 37.7 29.7 42.4 56.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 29.2 34.2 37.3 64.8 35.4 34.0 32.4 45.2 60.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 20.1 25.1 31.8 66.6 38.0 34.3 21.9 34.0 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 45.1 54.6 42.4 73.6 40.3 38.2 48.0 64.2 82.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 27.1 34.8 37.9 72.6 41.0 37.6 29.0 42.1 57.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 31.9 38.6 41.5 71.8 39.2 37.2 33.8 47.4 63.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 23.5 31.5 37.1 71.8 40.4 37.4 26.1 39.0 54.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 24.2 32.4 37.5 73.8 41.8 38.7 26.0 38.8 54.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 28.9 35.9 37.6 70.0 40.5 37.6 30.5 43.3 58.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 34.3 43.8 44.8 72.4 37.2 35.1 39.7 57.6 78.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 24.4 38.5 42.4 77.9 48.9 39.9 25.4 39.4 56.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 22.8 29.2 36.6 70.7 40.7 37.4 24.4 35.8 49.7 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 16.9 21.1 31.9 66.7 36.4 33.3 19.2 28.8 40.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 31.8 39.2 45.8 73.7 38.6 37.2 34.1 50.1 69.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 23.7 29.8 34.2 71.3 38.9 35.2 26.0 37.9 52.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 43.9 51.8 54.6 78.0 42.3 40.2 44.2 58.3 73.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 28.3 37.0 36.6 71.6 40.7 36.6 30.7 44.9 61.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 21.4 26.6 34.4 69.1 36.7 33.8 24.4 35.0 47.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 23.8 31.4 36.7 73.0 39.1 35.5 26.9 39.9 55.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 29.2 39.5 42.7 74.0 39.8 36.7 32.9 49.7 70.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 29.3 35.2 38.8 68.8 38.2 35.5 31.3 44.4 60.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 27.1 35.9 38.9 71.7 41.8 37.9 29.6 42.1 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 25.0 29.7 36.6 67.4 37.0 34.5 26.8 39.6 55.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 24.5 35.1 40.1 75.0 45.5 38.8 25.7 38.8 54.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 49.2 60.3 50.0 77.1 40.3 38.6 51.4 72.8 97.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 20.5 25.5 33.6 69.6 39.0 35.3 22.0 32.8 46.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------