***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9.3 9.5 12.3 -1.4 27.8 29.8 9.8 10.8 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 8.9 8.9 11.3 -2.0 20.1 22.7 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 11.7 11.8 12.4 -1.3 27.6 29.3 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.3 8.0 10.6 -0.5 40.8 41.2 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.0 11.2 -0.8 34.4 35.9 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.2 9.5 0.1 52.4 50.8 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 9.4 9.5 11.7 -1.7 22.9 25.3 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 4.1 8.7 -0.7 34.9 36.7 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.3 11.4 -0.6 38.2 39.7 10.0 10.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.0 9.7 -0.7 36.5 38.3 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.5 9.9 11.2 -0.3 44.5 45.0 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.1 8.6 9.9 -0.6 38.4 39.4 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.4 10.4 -0.3 43.5 44.0 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 10.2 10.4 10.6 -1.0 30.9 32.7 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 11.5 12.2 13.6 0.9 68.4 64.8 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.4 10.8 10.8 -0.3 44.4 44.6 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 9.4 9.3 10.9 -2.1 18.6 21.1 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.1 8.8 9.0 -0.8 34.8 36.5 8.6 9.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 9.4 9.4 11.5 -1.8 21.8 24.2 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.5 4.8 7.2 -1.0 30.9 32.9 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.6 12.2 -0.9 34.0 35.7 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 8.4 8.4 11.1 -2.0 19.0 21.1 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 8.9 9.0 11.8 -1.4 25.5 27.5 9.5 10.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.9 10.9 -0.8 34.3 35.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 9.6 9.9 11.8 -1.3 28.8 30.9 10.2 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.4 9.5 -0.5 39.5 40.5 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 9.3 9.6 12.0 -1.4 27.7 29.9 10.0 11.3 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.9 11.7 0.3 56.4 54.8 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.5 7.7 8.2 -0.9 32.3 34.3 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 9.3 9.4 11.9 -1.7 23.0 25.3 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------