***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 7.7 9.2 11.6 0.0 50.6 50.2 8.1 9.2 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.9 9.3 11.2 -0.1 48.8 48.5 8.2 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.5 11.6 0.0 50.5 49.5 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 7.0 9.0 0.2 53.2 51.7 5.5 6.7 7.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.9 8.7 9.1 0.1 51.3 50.9 7.2 8.6 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.2 7.7 0.4 57.3 55.5 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.1 9.3 11.3 -0.1 49.2 48.6 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.0 7.6 0.2 54.3 54.0 2.7 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.8 9.4 0.0 50.1 50.1 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 7.7 9.2 8.1 0.0 50.7 51.2 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.1 8.9 8.7 0.2 53.4 52.8 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.1 8.0 8.2 0.4 56.2 55.1 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.4 8.3 7.7 0.2 53.1 52.8 6.7 8.0 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 8.4 9.5 9.2 -0.1 48.0 48.3 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.9 10.1 0.3 56.1 53.6 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.1 9.8 8.3 0.3 54.3 53.4 8.3 9.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 8.3 9.4 10.9 -0.2 47.5 47.6 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.4 7.8 7.2 -0.1 48.9 50.4 6.7 7.9 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.2 9.4 11.2 -0.1 48.9 48.5 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.5 5.7 0.0 49.8 51.6 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.5 9.1 10.7 0.0 50.2 49.9 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 7.2 8.4 10.7 -0.2 46.2 46.6 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.6 9.0 11.1 0.0 49.2 48.5 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.5 8.7 9.0 -0.1 49.1 49.4 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 8.0 9.8 10.3 0.1 51.1 50.5 8.4 9.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.9 8.5 7.5 0.2 53.0 52.8 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 8.2 10.1 11.0 0.0 50.6 50.2 8.6 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.3 9.2 0.3 55.8 53.6 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 7.3 6.8 -0.1 48.9 50.7 6.4 7.4 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.7 11.4 0.0 49.3 48.8 8.6 9.7 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------