***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.3 11.8 -0.3 43.6 45.2 8.8 9.5 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.0 11.2 -0.5 37.6 40.5 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.5 11.8 -0.2 44.4 45.8 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.2 9.3 0.1 52.8 51.9 6.5 7.1 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.6 9.8 0.0 48.7 49.6 7.9 8.7 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.3 8.1 0.4 60.7 58.3 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.3 11.4 -0.4 40.2 42.5 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.8 7.7 0.0 49.8 51.3 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.7 10.0 0.0 50.5 51.0 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.3 8.5 0.0 48.8 50.4 8.7 9.4 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.1 9.4 0.1 54.2 53.9 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.0 8.5 0.1 53.2 53.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.5 8.4 0.1 51.7 52.0 7.7 8.4 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.2 9.7 9.7 -0.2 44.3 46.3 9.3 9.9 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 10.0 10.5 11.1 0.6 68.7 63.5 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.9 8.9 0.1 54.5 53.9 9.1 9.8 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 8.9 9.2 10.9 -0.5 35.7 39.0 9.1 9.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.2 7.8 -0.1 47.2 49.6 7.6 8.3 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.2 11.3 -0.4 39.2 41.8 9.0 9.6 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.4 6.1 -0.2 44.2 47.8 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.1 11.1 -0.1 47.7 48.5 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 8.0 8.3 10.8 -0.6 34.8 38.2 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.4 8.9 11.3 -0.2 43.0 45.0 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.1 9.6 -0.1 48.1 49.5 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.5 10.7 -0.2 44.7 45.9 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.6 7.9 0.0 49.2 50.3 8.1 8.7 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.5 11.2 -0.3 43.5 45.0 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.6 9.9 0.4 62.0 58.6 7.5 8.1 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.3 7.2 -0.1 45.5 48.7 6.9 7.5 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.5 11.5 -0.4 40.2 42.5 9.1 9.9 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------