***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 20.4 20.5 20.7 -1.9 25.3 28.1 21.3 22.7 24.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 20.5 20.5 20.3 -2.4 21.7 24.4 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 20.7 20.6 20.4 -2.4 21.1 24.6 21.8 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.3 19.3 -0.1 48.6 46.5 14.8 16.4 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 21.1 21.7 19.4 -1.7 28.4 30.9 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 21.2 22.9 18.9 -0.2 47.7 45.3 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 20.1 20.3 20.3 -2.3 22.7 25.2 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 10.6 11.1 17.5 -1.6 30.1 32.3 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 20.9 21.3 20.2 -1.7 27.7 30.4 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 20.5 20.7 18.2 -2.0 25.7 29.0 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 21.2 21.8 19.9 -1.6 30.3 32.4 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 20.7 21.9 19.2 -0.9 38.5 38.6 21.3 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 21.9 22.8 20.2 -1.0 36.5 37.2 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 19.9 19.5 18.7 -2.9 17.3 20.9 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 24.0 24.8 22.7 0.9 64.2 59.5 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.6 23.8 20.2 -0.7 41.0 40.7 23.0 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 19.7 19.6 19.5 -2.7 19.6 22.0 21.0 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 19.5 19.6 17.0 -2.3 22.3 26.1 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 20.3 20.3 20.4 -2.4 21.9 24.7 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 15.8 16.1 15.3 -2.2 23.0 27.1 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 20.8 20.9 20.4 -2.2 22.9 26.1 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 20.0 19.6 19.2 -3.1 15.9 18.4 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 20.6 20.6 20.5 -2.1 24.1 27.1 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 20.1 19.9 19.0 -2.5 20.3 23.9 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 20.6 21.0 19.7 -1.8 25.9 28.6 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 24.6 23.5 19.5 -0.2 46.7 44.6 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 20.6 20.9 20.1 -1.9 25.0 27.9 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 24.3 24.5 21.0 0.5 57.7 54.1 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 15.0 14.9 16.3 -2.5 20.5 24.8 16.4 18.1 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 20.4 20.4 20.5 -2.3 22.3 25.2 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------