***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.8 22.0 0.1 50.7 50.4 20.2 21.8 23.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 20.5 21.9 21.7 -0.2 47.2 47.3 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.3 22.3 0.0 50.5 50.0 20.7 22.3 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 16.8 16.2 20.3 1.0 63.0 59.0 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 20.5 23.1 21.0 0.5 56.4 54.6 20.9 22.5 24.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 19.7 22.4 19.3 0.8 59.5 57.1 20.0 21.6 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 20.1 21.6 21.7 -0.2 47.5 47.9 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.7 12.2 19.5 0.7 57.9 56.0 10.1 11.6 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.3 22.8 21.7 0.6 56.7 54.9 20.6 22.2 23.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 19.8 22.4 20.3 0.5 56.2 54.7 20.2 21.8 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.3 23.1 21.4 0.7 58.4 55.9 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 19.7 22.8 20.7 0.9 61.3 58.1 20.0 21.7 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 20.6 23.3 20.9 0.7 58.4 56.2 20.9 22.6 24.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 20.5 22.2 20.8 -0.1 48.7 48.6 20.7 22.4 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 23.8 23.5 22.0 1.2 65.8 61.1 20.9 22.2 23.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 21.3 24.1 21.1 0.9 60.6 57.5 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 19.8 21.1 21.1 -0.4 44.9 45.7 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 19.4 21.7 19.6 0.4 54.9 53.7 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 20.1 21.8 22.0 -0.1 48.8 48.3 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 15.4 17.7 17.5 0.4 55.2 54.4 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.4 22.0 0.1 51.7 51.3 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 20.3 21.5 21.0 -0.6 42.2 43.9 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.4 22.4 0.3 53.4 51.5 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.4 21.2 0.3 53.1 52.0 20.5 22.1 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.9 20.8 0.1 51.7 51.2 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.9 23.5 20.3 1.2 64.0 60.2 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.8 21.3 0.0 50.3 50.1 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 24.1 23.7 21.1 1.2 64.6 60.3 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 14.6 17.0 18.7 0.3 53.6 52.9 15.0 16.6 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.8 21.9 -0.2 48.0 48.1 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------