***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.5 20.9 0.7 57.9 54.7 19.7 20.9 22.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.8 20.8 0.6 56.8 53.8 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 21.8 22.0 21.3 0.8 59.4 55.9 20.2 21.3 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 12.2 15.8 19.6 1.5 68.0 61.4 12.5 14.1 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 21.7 22.1 20.0 1.1 62.1 58.0 20.0 21.2 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 21.1 21.5 18.4 1.1 61.9 58.5 19.2 20.6 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 21.4 21.4 20.8 0.6 57.0 53.9 19.8 20.9 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.1 18.7 1.1 61.8 58.4 10.0 11.3 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 19.9 22.1 20.3 1.0 60.8 57.2 20.1 21.3 22.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 21.5 21.7 19.3 1.0 60.8 57.5 19.7 21.0 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 21.9 22.3 20.0 1.2 63.6 59.4 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.4 21.9 19.8 1.3 64.6 60.2 19.5 20.8 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.7 19.4 1.2 62.8 59.0 20.6 21.8 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.4 19.8 0.6 57.1 54.9 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 22.1 22.2 20.2 1.6 69.3 62.0 19.3 20.7 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 22.7 23.3 20.0 1.4 65.7 60.8 21.0 22.2 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.3 20.9 20.3 0.3 54.2 52.0 19.5 20.6 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.1 21.3 19.0 0.9 60.0 57.2 19.2 20.5 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.6 21.0 0.6 57.6 54.4 19.9 21.1 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 16.0 17.9 16.6 0.7 58.3 56.5 16.1 17.3 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 19.8 21.8 20.7 0.8 58.8 55.7 20.0 21.2 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 19.9 21.5 20.1 0.2 52.1 50.6 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 21.9 22.0 21.2 0.8 59.3 55.7 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.0 22.2 20.1 0.9 60.2 57.0 20.3 21.5 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 21.2 21.3 19.5 0.8 59.2 55.4 19.5 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.9 22.6 19.5 1.4 66.0 61.2 20.2 21.5 22.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 21.6 21.6 20.1 0.6 57.6 54.5 19.9 21.1 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 21.6 22.7 20.0 1.6 68.9 62.3 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.1 17.1 18.0 0.8 58.3 56.3 15.3 16.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.5 21.5 20.9 0.6 57.5 54.4 19.9 21.0 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------