***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 19.4 20.1 19.3 1.2 63.4 60.0 17.6 19.0 20.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 19.7 20.3 19.2 1.1 61.6 58.4 17.9 19.3 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 19.8 20.6 19.8 1.4 64.8 61.2 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 13.6 14.0 18.0 2.0 71.3 66.3 11.0 12.3 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 19.9 20.9 18.4 1.7 67.5 63.5 18.1 19.5 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 19.5 20.2 16.7 1.6 65.9 62.5 17.6 19.0 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 19.4 19.9 19.1 1.0 61.5 58.3 17.5 18.9 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 11.3 11.2 17.0 1.7 66.5 63.1 8.8 10.1 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 19.8 20.8 18.8 1.7 67.0 63.1 18.1 19.5 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 19.5 20.4 17.8 1.7 66.6 63.0 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 21.0 21.0 18.4 1.8 67.9 63.9 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 20.5 20.4 18.0 1.8 67.7 63.9 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 21.2 21.0 17.5 1.6 65.7 62.2 18.5 19.8 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 20.2 20.9 18.3 1.3 63.4 60.5 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 20.2 20.5 18.7 2.1 73.0 67.3 17.7 18.9 20.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 21.7 21.7 18.2 1.9 68.7 64.5 18.9 20.2 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 19.1 19.5 18.8 0.8 59.4 56.7 17.3 18.7 20.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 18.7 19.6 17.4 1.7 66.2 62.8 17.0 18.3 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 19.6 20.2 19.4 1.2 62.7 59.3 17.8 19.2 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.7 15.0 1.5 64.7 61.7 14.3 15.6 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 19.7 20.5 19.2 1.4 64.9 61.4 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 19.8 20.2 18.7 0.8 58.8 56.3 18.0 19.5 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 19.9 20.7 19.7 1.4 64.6 61.0 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 19.9 20.8 18.6 1.6 66.0 62.5 18.0 19.5 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 19.1 19.8 17.9 1.3 64.2 60.6 17.6 18.8 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 20.9 20.9 17.6 1.8 68.4 64.0 18.4 19.6 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 19.5 20.1 18.6 1.2 63.2 59.9 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 20.4 20.7 18.4 2.2 72.5 67.2 17.6 18.9 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.7 16.5 1.5 64.8 61.9 13.2 14.5 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 19.4 20.0 19.3 1.1 62.5 59.2 17.7 19.0 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------