***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 20.2 21.1 20.7 0.0 50.1 49.8 20.4 21.1 21.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 20.6 21.3 20.5 -0.2 45.3 45.9 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 20.6 21.5 21.0 0.0 49.3 49.1 20.8 21.6 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 15.5 15.5 19.3 1.1 70.6 64.7 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 20.8 22.1 19.7 0.4 57.7 55.4 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.8 18.3 0.8 65.3 61.4 20.2 21.1 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.0 20.5 -0.2 45.9 46.3 20.4 21.1 21.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.8 18.2 0.4 58.5 56.3 10.7 11.4 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 20.7 22.0 20.2 0.4 57.0 55.0 20.8 21.6 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.6 18.9 0.3 55.7 54.3 20.4 21.3 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.2 19.9 0.5 60.1 57.3 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.5 21.9 19.4 0.8 64.6 60.7 20.2 21.1 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 22.4 22.6 19.5 0.6 61.2 58.2 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 20.7 21.6 19.4 -0.2 45.4 46.0 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 22.3 22.6 20.9 1.5 76.7 69.4 20.6 21.3 22.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 22.8 23.3 19.9 0.9 66.1 61.6 21.7 22.5 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 19.9 20.4 19.9 -0.5 40.9 42.4 20.1 20.8 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.7 20.8 18.2 0.2 53.5 52.6 19.8 20.6 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 20.4 21.2 20.7 -0.2 47.0 47.1 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 16.3 17.4 16.1 0.1 52.5 52.3 16.4 17.3 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.6 21.6 20.6 0.0 50.7 50.2 20.8 21.6 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.5 21.0 19.7 -0.7 37.2 39.4 20.7 21.6 22.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.6 21.0 0.1 51.7 50.7 20.8 21.6 22.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 20.5 21.6 19.7 0.1 51.4 50.8 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 20.3 21.2 19.5 0.1 51.9 51.0 20.4 21.1 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 22.8 22.8 19.2 1.0 68.9 63.9 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.3 20.0 0.0 49.7 49.4 20.6 21.3 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 22.6 22.9 20.1 1.4 74.6 67.9 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 15.4 16.5 17.4 0.0 50.7 50.7 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 20.3 21.1 20.6 -0.2 46.8 47.1 20.5 21.2 22.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------