***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.8 11.3 16.3 106.0 65.9 50.0 3.3 6.5 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.0 10.2 13.8 97.3 62.8 49.4 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.8 13.2 15.4 105.1 65.4 49.7 4.6 8.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.2 8.6 13.9 84.5 57.8 41.9 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.3 14.5 103.4 64.9 45.7 2.2 4.8 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.2 7.1 12.5 76.9 53.3 40.8 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.2 13.4 91.8 61.0 48.7 3.7 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.8 15.6 88.7 58.3 45.3 3.6 7.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.7 14.8 100.4 63.8 47.4 2.7 5.7 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.7 16.2 93.8 60.6 46.6 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.7 7.2 12.9 86.6 58.8 41.9 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.4 12.0 80.1 55.9 41.6 2.9 5.3 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.8 8.4 13.1 84.2 58.0 39.3 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.2 20.4 21.4 125.2 71.4 55.6 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.3 8.2 14.1 92.0 62.1 42.1 2.1 4.9 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.3 6.0 12.0 79.8 56.5 40.0 2.5 4.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.7 8.9 13.6 96.2 62.6 51.2 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.3 12.7 19.2 104.8 64.6 52.3 3.2 7.3 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.2 15.0 104.9 65.2 50.9 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 13.0 19.6 104.6 64.0 50.8 3.2 7.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.4 13.8 15.4 104.8 65.5 49.5 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.1 15.5 105.3 65.3 53.5 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.2 13.5 16.6 113.9 68.1 52.7 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.1 17.0 18.6 118.1 69.1 53.7 4.3 8.8 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.9 12.7 19.1 123.1 71.1 51.7 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.0 5.9 9.7 66.2 49.3 36.7 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.3 11.4 18.0 115.7 68.8 52.0 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.1 6.1 12.8 79.9 56.6 39.3 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.4 22.4 20.7 113.7 67.5 54.2 5.5 11.7 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.2 14.1 96.6 62.4 48.0 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------