***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.0 9.7 84.9 60.1 44.4 2.6 5.0 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.9 9.7 87.3 61.0 42.5 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.7 9.9 84.5 59.8 43.9 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.7 18.4 10.7 95.8 64.6 46.4 6.7 12.0 19.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.8 10.3 92.6 63.3 45.8 4.1 7.8 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.2 11.5 10.1 96.6 64.1 44.8 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.8 10.3 94.5 63.5 43.8 2.4 5.3 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.2 15.4 10.5 88.3 61.4 46.0 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.5 10.5 10.9 94.6 63.6 46.2 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.3 11.2 11.0 88.0 61.1 45.9 4.3 7.9 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.5 9.0 84.8 60.8 44.0 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.2 10.7 9.1 92.1 62.9 45.1 3.2 6.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.3 11.3 9.3 91.7 62.6 43.8 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.1 14.2 12.6 92.4 62.1 47.2 4.7 9.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 3.8 12.7 9.7 91.6 63.9 42.2 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.8 9.4 8.6 86.0 60.7 42.6 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.2 11.5 104.1 66.6 44.7 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.8 12.6 12.5 91.5 62.0 47.5 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.4 9.5 83.9 59.6 42.0 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.2 14.5 14.6 90.6 62.0 47.1 5.3 10.0 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.6 10.4 10.5 92.6 63.1 46.0 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.7 11.8 99.8 64.8 44.3 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.9 8.8 9.7 84.1 59.5 42.4 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.8 11.7 91.6 62.0 47.0 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.9 10.8 10.7 90.0 62.2 46.0 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.9 14.0 9.8 100.3 66.0 45.5 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.2 10.0 84.3 59.9 44.6 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.0 12.5 9.7 93.4 63.9 44.2 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.0 16.3 13.2 92.2 62.0 47.8 6.1 11.2 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.1 9.5 82.0 59.2 42.3 2.3 5.0 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------