***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.0 8.7 10.4 92.1 62.5 44.1 1.8 4.9 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.0 10.5 10.4 95.8 63.8 45.6 2.9 6.2 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.1 11.1 10.6 90.3 61.8 45.1 2.7 6.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.7 10.1 9.1 69.7 54.1 36.9 3.7 8.6 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.1 7.6 8.5 64.4 52.0 36.5 3.2 7.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.7 9.8 10.4 71.3 53.8 40.5 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.5 9.5 10.6 100.2 65.0 45.8 2.3 5.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 5.1 11.3 9.8 64.4 51.0 38.1 5.3 10.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.2 8.0 8.9 64.6 52.1 38.0 3.3 7.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.9 8.7 9.9 64.2 51.2 38.5 3.7 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.0 6.9 8.1 61.2 50.8 36.6 3.1 6.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.3 6.5 8.7 64.3 52.0 37.2 2.3 5.9 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.4 9.1 10.2 73.8 55.4 40.3 3.2 7.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.6 14.2 12.9 83.9 59.1 44.7 3.9 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.7 7.0 8.8 69.2 55.8 36.6 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.7 8.6 66.2 52.5 37.7 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.1 7.4 10.7 100.2 65.4 45.6 2.0 4.3 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 10.5 11.2 67.6 52.0 40.4 4.7 9.7 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.0 11.1 10.4 93.1 62.8 45.7 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.5 13.4 70.2 52.4 40.3 3.4 7.8 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.7 9.9 9.2 73.8 55.9 40.7 3.8 8.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.8 9.8 11.1 97.7 64.3 44.7 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.0 10.1 10.5 88.7 61.2 45.7 2.4 6.0 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.7 11.1 76.3 56.2 43.1 4.5 10.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.8 9.6 10.3 83.0 58.9 41.6 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.4 8.6 10.2 71.3 54.5 38.3 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.8 9.7 10.6 89.9 61.6 43.8 2.7 6.2 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.7 8.3 65.0 53.2 36.2 2.2 5.0 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.5 12.8 11.8 68.3 51.5 40.6 5.8 12.1 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.6 9.4 10.6 96.3 63.8 45.5 2.3 5.4 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------