***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 22.3 36.9 45.3 92.2 54.0 46.9 22.6 33.8 47.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 23.3 37.2 43.6 91.8 54.1 47.0 24.3 34.6 46.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 31.2 44.9 44.8 91.0 52.8 46.1 31.8 42.8 55.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 39.4 57.3 43.1 82.7 48.6 39.8 42.3 58.6 77.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 30.0 42.2 41.9 84.9 49.4 40.7 31.1 42.7 55.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 28.7 41.1 43.0 81.0 45.0 39.3 32.2 45.1 60.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 22.0 38.1 44.5 94.7 56.0 48.0 22.7 33.5 46.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 45.1 59.2 46.8 83.3 46.0 39.8 48.1 62.9 79.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 29.5 42.4 43.7 86.0 49.7 41.8 31.0 42.6 56.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 33.8 46.4 48.0 84.4 46.8 40.4 36.2 49.1 63.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 26.5 36.5 39.6 78.9 44.8 37.9 28.5 40.2 54.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 25.7 36.5 39.4 80.4 45.7 38.9 27.8 39.6 53.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 28.4 41.8 41.2 82.0 46.8 38.9 31.9 44.1 58.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 67.5 67.2 59.2 99.7 57.7 50.5 44.9 59.7 76.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 21.8 39.9 41.6 83.6 51.3 39.9 24.9 38.6 55.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 22.0 32.6 38.4 77.9 44.5 37.3 25.2 36.4 49.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 17.4 31.3 45.7 96.7 57.1 48.7 17.5 26.7 37.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 36.4 51.8 54.6 89.4 50.1 44.2 37.7 51.8 67.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 25.6 39.8 44.4 91.7 53.4 46.9 26.6 37.4 50.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 40.5 54.1 60.0 88.0 48.2 42.6 42.3 55.6 70.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 30.0 45.8 44.2 89.9 52.4 44.3 30.7 43.6 59.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 22.6 37.0 47.8 95.2 55.6 48.0 23.4 33.3 45.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 30.8 44.4 46.7 93.6 54.1 47.6 30.9 41.8 53.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 58.9 54.1 52.4 93.9 53.9 47.1 35.7 50.4 67.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 30.6 47.8 48.9 94.7 55.6 47.0 30.9 43.4 57.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 26.4 36.6 37.7 75.0 41.6 36.7 30.8 42.8 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 24.4 40.4 48.0 94.1 55.3 48.0 24.7 36.4 50.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 23.7 37.2 39.8 79.6 47.2 37.6 27.3 39.3 53.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 53.4 75.0 58.1 91.4 51.0 45.1 54.1 73.7 95.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 22.4 34.3 43.7 90.8 53.5 46.6 22.9 32.2 43.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------