***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 10.8 10.9 13.4 0.3 54.8 54.4 9.6 10.7 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 11.1 11.5 13.1 0.5 58.9 58.1 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 13.2 13.4 13.6 0.3 56.2 55.7 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 8.8 9.5 11.1 0.6 63.6 62.3 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 10.0 10.3 12.0 0.4 57.7 57.0 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 9.2 9.4 9.6 0.4 58.4 57.6 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 11.3 11.5 13.2 0.4 57.4 56.8 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 5.2 5.2 9.5 0.1 53.1 52.7 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 11.0 11.6 12.4 0.6 62.7 61.5 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 10.8 11.0 10.6 0.4 58.0 57.1 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 10.3 10.7 11.9 0.5 61.3 60.1 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 9.4 9.3 10.4 0.1 52.6 52.2 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 9.9 10.2 10.9 0.4 58.9 57.9 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 11.4 11.6 11.8 0.4 58.1 57.2 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 12.2 12.5 13.6 1.2 76.3 74.4 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 11.2 11.6 11.4 0.6 62.4 61.4 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 11.3 11.8 12.9 0.7 62.5 61.4 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 9.8 9.8 9.9 0.2 55.1 54.4 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 11.2 11.5 13.2 0.5 58.9 58.0 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 6.1 5.7 8.0 -0.1 47.9 47.8 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 10.6 11.0 13.3 0.4 58.8 58.1 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 10.3 10.8 13.1 0.6 61.5 60.5 9.2 10.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 10.7 11.2 13.3 0.5 60.0 59.1 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 10.7 11.0 11.9 0.4 58.5 57.7 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 11.4 11.3 12.7 0.1 52.5 52.2 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 10.1 9.7 9.7 -0.2 46.0 46.3 8.9 9.9 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 11.5 11.6 13.0 0.2 53.9 53.7 9.8 11.2 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 10.4 10.5 11.9 0.9 69.7 68.2 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 9.1 9.0 9.2 0.1 53.3 52.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 11.4 11.6 13.3 0.4 56.5 55.9 10.0 11.2 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------