***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.2 12.0 -0.7 37.4 40.4 8.9 10.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 8.5 9.3 11.7 -0.6 39.4 41.9 8.8 10.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.4 12.1 -0.6 38.0 41.1 11.0 12.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.5 9.1 -0.8 34.7 38.4 6.3 7.6 8.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.1 9.9 -0.8 34.3 38.2 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 7.0 7.1 7.5 -1.0 30.5 34.7 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.9 9.5 11.7 -0.6 38.4 41.1 9.1 10.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.7 2.9 7.7 -0.9 32.4 36.8 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.0 9.3 10.1 -0.7 34.7 38.6 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 8.7 9.0 8.6 -0.8 33.3 37.5 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 8.4 8.5 9.4 -0.9 31.6 35.4 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 7.2 7.3 8.4 -1.0 30.3 35.3 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 7.9 7.8 8.1 -1.2 26.7 32.1 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.4 9.8 10.1 -0.6 37.3 40.6 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 9.0 9.3 10.6 -0.8 33.5 37.1 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 9.1 9.2 8.7 -1.0 30.4 34.7 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.7 11.5 -0.4 41.8 43.8 9.1 10.2 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.1 8.2 -0.7 35.6 39.6 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 8.8 9.4 11.7 -0.5 40.0 42.6 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.2 6.4 -0.8 33.9 38.8 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 8.5 8.8 11.4 -0.7 35.7 39.2 8.7 9.7 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.0 8.7 11.6 -0.4 41.4 43.7 8.2 9.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.1 11.8 -0.4 42.0 44.4 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.7 9.0 10.1 -0.6 37.4 40.8 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.1 11.0 -0.8 36.6 39.8 8.9 10.1 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 7.9 7.8 7.6 -1.3 25.9 32.0 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 8.5 9.2 11.5 -0.8 37.0 40.2 8.9 10.3 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.5 7.6 9.4 -0.9 32.4 36.4 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.3 6.8 7.6 -0.7 35.9 40.1 6.6 7.7 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.0 9.6 11.9 -0.6 38.1 40.9 9.2 10.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------