***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.9 10.5 0.3 55.0 54.2 6.3 7.5 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.9 7.8 10.2 0.3 55.2 54.4 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.9 10.6 0.4 55.7 54.9 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.3 7.6 0.3 55.4 55.1 3.8 5.0 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.0 8.1 0.4 56.2 55.9 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.3 6.3 0.5 58.2 57.4 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.8 10.2 0.3 54.3 53.6 6.4 7.5 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.6 6.5 0.5 58.4 57.7 1.0 2.1 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.0 8.5 0.4 57.0 56.5 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.7 7.2 0.5 57.6 57.1 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.3 7.5 0.4 57.0 56.9 5.9 6.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.3 6.9 0.5 57.8 57.5 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.8 6.5 0.5 57.0 56.8 5.5 6.4 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.1 8.6 0.3 55.3 55.0 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.9 8.0 8.7 0.4 56.9 56.4 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.2 7.0 0.4 57.0 56.9 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.8 10.1 0.4 55.3 54.3 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.7 6.7 0.4 56.8 56.4 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.8 10.2 0.4 55.6 54.9 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.1 5.0 0.6 58.8 57.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.5 9.8 0.4 55.8 55.0 5.9 7.1 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.1 10.0 0.4 55.6 54.9 5.8 6.8 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.6 10.2 0.4 55.9 55.3 6.2 7.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.1 8.3 0.4 56.0 55.5 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.0 9.1 0.4 55.4 54.5 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.0 6.3 0.4 56.7 56.4 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.0 9.9 0.4 55.7 54.7 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.3 7.9 0.4 57.0 56.5 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.0 6.2 0.5 57.3 56.8 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.1 10.3 0.3 54.9 54.2 6.5 7.7 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------