***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.3 11.8 -0.1 48.6 49.2 8.6 9.3 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.5 11.5 0.1 52.4 52.4 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.5 12.0 0.0 50.6 50.8 10.9 11.5 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.0 9.1 0.0 50.7 51.1 6.3 6.9 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.5 9.7 0.0 49.2 49.8 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.7 7.7 0.0 49.4 50.1 7.0 7.7 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.5 11.6 0.0 50.7 51.0 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 3.9 3.6 7.8 0.0 48.9 49.6 3.1 3.7 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.6 10.1 0.1 51.9 52.0 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.2 8.6 0.0 50.6 51.0 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.8 9.3 0.0 50.4 50.7 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.6 8.4 -0.1 46.8 47.9 7.1 7.7 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.1 8.2 -0.1 46.0 47.4 7.6 8.3 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.8 10.0 0.1 52.0 52.4 9.1 9.7 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.8 10.6 0.2 56.7 56.1 9.0 9.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.6 8.8 0.0 49.6 50.1 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.7 11.3 0.2 54.8 54.5 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.1 8.1 0.0 50.6 51.1 7.4 8.1 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.5 11.6 0.1 52.9 52.9 8.8 9.4 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.4 6.3 0.0 48.6 49.2 3.8 4.4 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.0 11.3 0.0 50.1 50.5 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.8 11.4 0.2 54.7 54.5 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.2 11.6 0.2 54.4 54.0 8.3 9.0 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.0 9.9 0.1 52.1 52.3 8.4 8.9 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.5 10.7 -0.1 47.6 48.4 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.2 7.7 -0.3 40.7 42.9 7.9 8.5 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.7 11.3 -0.1 48.6 49.2 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.1 9.5 0.1 53.5 53.4 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.4 7.5 0.0 50.9 51.3 6.7 7.3 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.7 11.7 0.0 50.4 50.7 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------