***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 19.9 20.9 21.0 -0.6 41.9 45.1 20.1 21.5 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.6 21.4 -0.3 45.7 47.9 20.7 21.9 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.6 21.6 -0.4 45.5 47.9 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 13.0 14.2 18.5 -0.6 42.6 45.7 13.3 14.9 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.9 21.7 19.7 -0.5 43.5 46.6 20.7 22.3 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.9 20.5 17.8 -0.6 42.0 46.1 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 22.1 21.2 21.3 -0.4 44.5 47.0 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.1 18.2 -0.3 46.1 48.9 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 22.5 21.7 20.5 -0.3 46.5 48.8 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.2 21.4 19.2 -0.2 48.0 50.2 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 22.6 21.6 19.9 -0.4 44.7 47.7 20.5 22.1 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 22.0 20.8 19.0 -0.6 43.2 46.6 19.9 21.5 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.9 21.6 19.2 -0.6 42.2 45.9 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.6 22.3 20.6 0.0 50.0 51.3 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 20.3 21.4 20.3 -0.5 43.6 46.4 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 23.4 22.2 19.4 -0.5 43.4 46.8 21.2 22.8 24.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 19.8 21.2 21.2 -0.1 48.7 49.9 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.1 18.7 0.1 50.8 52.4 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 20.1 21.5 21.6 -0.2 47.0 48.9 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 17.6 17.1 16.7 0.0 50.3 52.3 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.5 21.1 -0.5 44.2 47.0 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.5 22.0 21.2 -0.1 48.4 49.7 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 20.4 22.0 21.8 0.0 50.2 51.1 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.5 21.9 20.5 0.0 49.9 51.5 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 19.8 20.8 19.7 -0.7 41.2 44.4 20.1 21.5 22.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 22.6 21.3 18.3 -0.7 41.6 45.5 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 20.0 20.9 20.4 -0.6 41.8 44.9 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.5 19.4 -0.5 43.8 46.7 20.5 22.1 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.6 18.1 0.1 51.3 53.0 14.9 16.5 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 20.1 21.3 21.4 -0.4 44.2 46.9 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------