***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 19.2 20.7 20.0 -0.1 48.7 48.7 19.5 20.8 22.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.3 20.4 0.2 52.3 51.1 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 21.7 21.3 20.6 0.1 51.3 50.6 19.9 21.2 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.9 13.8 17.9 -0.1 48.6 48.8 12.2 13.9 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 19.6 21.0 18.7 -0.1 48.6 49.1 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.1 20.5 17.1 -0.1 49.3 49.3 19.2 20.5 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.8 20.2 0.0 50.5 49.8 19.5 20.8 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.2 17.5 0.1 50.9 50.7 9.8 11.1 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 19.6 21.2 19.2 0.0 50.6 50.4 19.8 21.2 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.9 18.3 0.2 51.8 51.4 19.4 20.8 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.2 18.6 0.0 49.7 50.0 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 21.2 20.6 18.3 -0.1 49.0 49.4 19.3 20.6 21.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.5 17.9 -0.2 48.0 48.5 20.4 21.7 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.9 19.4 0.4 54.3 53.0 20.1 21.5 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 18.8 20.6 18.7 0.1 51.1 50.4 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.9 18.3 -0.1 48.6 49.2 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 20.9 20.7 20.3 0.3 53.8 52.0 19.2 20.4 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.9 20.6 18.1 0.3 53.5 52.5 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.1 20.6 0.3 53.3 51.9 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.4 15.9 0.3 53.4 52.4 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 19.5 21.0 19.8 -0.1 49.0 49.1 19.8 21.1 22.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 21.7 21.5 20.3 0.4 54.3 52.7 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 21.7 21.5 20.8 0.4 54.4 52.8 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.5 19.3 0.3 53.7 52.5 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 19.1 20.4 18.4 -0.2 47.8 48.0 19.4 20.6 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.3 18.0 0.0 50.2 49.6 20.1 21.3 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 19.5 20.9 19.3 -0.1 48.6 48.7 19.8 21.0 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 18.8 20.7 18.3 0.0 49.9 49.7 19.1 20.7 22.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.5 17.3 0.3 53.8 52.7 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.9 20.4 0.1 50.9 50.2 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------