***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 19.4 19.3 19.1 0.6 56.6 55.1 17.2 18.8 20.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 19.6 19.6 19.2 0.6 57.1 55.8 17.5 19.0 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.7 19.6 0.7 57.6 55.9 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.9 17.0 0.9 60.5 58.0 10.6 12.0 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 19.6 20.0 17.9 0.9 60.3 57.8 17.7 19.1 20.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 19.1 19.7 16.4 1.1 62.9 59.1 17.0 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 19.2 19.1 19.1 0.5 56.0 54.8 17.1 18.6 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.8 16.9 1.1 62.0 59.2 8.4 9.8 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 19.7 20.1 18.4 1.0 60.8 58.0 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 19.3 19.8 17.6 1.1 61.9 59.0 17.3 18.8 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 19.7 20.2 17.9 1.1 61.8 58.9 17.7 19.2 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 19.2 19.6 17.6 1.0 61.4 58.7 17.3 18.7 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 19.9 20.3 17.1 1.0 61.4 58.2 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 20.2 20.3 18.3 0.7 57.6 56.2 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 18.9 19.3 17.7 1.0 62.1 59.3 17.1 18.4 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 20.4 20.8 17.6 1.1 61.9 58.8 18.4 19.9 21.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 19.1 19.1 18.9 0.6 57.4 56.1 16.9 18.5 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 18.6 19.0 17.3 1.1 61.3 58.6 16.6 18.0 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.5 19.5 0.7 57.5 56.2 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.4 15.2 1.1 62.1 59.4 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 19.6 19.7 18.9 0.8 58.3 56.1 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.7 18.9 0.6 56.4 55.7 17.6 19.2 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 19.8 19.9 19.6 0.7 58.0 56.6 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 19.8 20.1 18.4 0.9 59.7 57.4 17.7 19.2 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 19.1 19.1 17.5 0.7 57.8 55.9 17.2 18.5 19.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 19.6 20.1 17.1 1.1 62.8 59.2 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 19.4 19.4 18.4 0.6 57.2 55.5 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 19.1 19.6 17.4 1.0 62.0 59.1 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.3 16.6 1.0 61.0 58.6 12.8 14.3 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 19.3 19.3 19.2 0.6 56.5 55.3 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------