***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 21.2 20.6 20.0 -0.5 40.8 43.0 20.2 20.9 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 21.7 21.1 20.4 -0.3 44.4 45.7 20.6 21.4 22.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.1 20.5 -0.4 43.1 45.0 20.6 21.4 22.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.9 17.7 -0.3 43.8 45.6 13.4 14.2 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 21.9 21.2 18.7 -0.4 42.3 44.4 20.8 21.6 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 19.8 20.4 17.0 -0.4 41.6 43.8 20.0 20.8 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 21.3 20.7 20.2 -0.4 42.4 44.0 20.3 21.0 21.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.0 17.3 -0.4 43.2 45.1 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 21.8 21.2 19.4 -0.3 45.3 46.8 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.8 18.1 -0.3 45.2 46.8 20.2 21.1 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.2 18.8 -0.4 43.3 45.2 20.7 21.5 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.3 20.5 18.1 -0.5 41.6 43.7 20.0 20.9 21.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 20.8 21.3 18.2 -0.5 40.5 42.7 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 22.1 21.5 19.3 -0.2 46.0 47.4 20.8 21.7 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 21.4 20.9 19.2 -0.2 47.1 48.3 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.9 18.4 -0.4 42.4 44.3 21.5 22.3 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 21.0 20.5 20.1 -0.2 46.8 47.5 19.9 20.7 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 20.8 20.3 17.7 -0.2 46.6 47.9 19.6 20.5 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.0 20.5 -0.3 45.5 46.7 20.4 21.2 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.8 15.6 -0.3 44.8 46.4 16.3 17.1 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.0 20.0 -0.5 41.9 44.0 20.6 21.4 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 21.7 21.2 20.1 -0.2 46.1 47.1 20.6 21.4 22.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 21.7 21.3 20.7 -0.1 47.8 48.7 20.6 21.4 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.2 19.3 -0.2 46.5 47.8 20.5 21.4 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 21.2 20.5 18.6 -0.5 40.3 42.6 20.2 20.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.0 17.6 -0.5 40.3 42.5 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.7 19.4 -0.5 40.7 42.9 20.4 21.1 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 21.6 21.0 18.4 -0.2 45.7 47.1 20.3 21.2 22.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.1 17.0 -0.2 46.3 47.7 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 21.4 20.8 20.3 -0.4 42.5 44.4 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------