***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 12.6 15.0 23.4 148.0 77.0 70.5 3.3 6.3 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 11.8 13.5 17.9 134.0 73.8 64.1 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 12.9 14.8 19.1 131.4 73.3 66.1 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 9.8 14.5 19.1 107.7 67.6 62.5 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 9.9 11.1 18.2 124.2 72.0 65.5 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 7.5 12.3 20.0 123.5 71.9 65.5 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.0 15.6 19.6 143.1 76.0 64.9 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 10.7 18.4 20.5 121.8 70.7 64.0 3.8 8.4 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.2 13.1 20.0 129.8 73.2 67.1 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 12.1 14.3 21.7 130.3 73.1 66.3 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.4 10.3 16.6 112.8 69.6 62.0 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 6.7 10.3 17.1 115.9 69.7 62.8 2.8 5.5 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 47 53 100 11.5 13.0 19.0 121.1 71.6 65.6 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 16.7 20.1 22.4 136.0 74.4 67.3 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 10.8 12.8 22.7 125.8 73.2 65.5 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 5.8 8.5 16.5 108.4 68.2 61.2 2.6 4.8 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 10.5 11.7 16.8 129.5 72.7 63.4 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 14.2 17.1 22.6 133.2 73.7 67.0 2.8 6.6 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 13.0 15.0 17.9 133.1 73.6 64.1 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 9.0 15.3 21.9 119.3 69.5 63.1 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 11.9 13.3 20.4 131.8 73.6 67.7 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.5 13.5 16.4 126.5 71.7 61.8 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 12.7 15.5 19.0 137.2 74.7 65.9 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 14.4 16.4 20.0 128.5 72.5 65.0 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 13.4 16.2 27.2 159.7 79.1 73.9 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 7.5 11.8 15.5 115.1 69.9 62.9 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 12.7 15.8 26.1 163.1 79.8 73.4 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 6.2 9.8 18.8 108.0 68.4 61.8 2.2 4.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 13.4 23.8 22.3 129.5 72.6 65.1 4.9 10.6 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 10.0 12.3 19.5 141.7 75.7 65.8 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------