***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.7 9.5 82.1 59.4 44.9 2.6 5.9 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.8 9.2 85.7 58.8 44.3 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.5 8.6 9.3 75.9 54.7 41.4 3.4 7.1 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 7.6 20.4 11.3 88.4 61.7 43.6 7.6 14.2 23.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.3 13.8 10.5 82.3 58.2 41.5 5.6 10.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 5.0 12.6 9.9 82.1 57.9 40.2 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.6 7.3 8.6 79.6 57.7 41.0 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.8 17.7 10.3 86.0 58.3 40.6 8.6 14.3 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.6 11.5 9.9 81.7 57.2 39.4 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 6.5 15.2 10.6 81.6 56.8 40.0 7.2 12.5 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 6.0 15.7 12.0 92.9 61.3 46.4 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.4 13.7 10.3 91.0 60.1 41.9 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.1 13.2 10.5 86.3 60.1 40.9 5.1 9.6 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.3 12.9 10.7 74.6 53.2 41.8 7.4 11.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.6 12.4 9.4 75.6 58.3 42.1 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.4 11.7 10.8 88.5 60.5 43.7 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.4 9.3 85.7 58.8 43.1 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.9 12.5 11.0 77.3 54.4 39.8 6.4 10.9 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.0 9.2 83.2 57.5 44.6 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.2 13.7 12.1 81.3 55.8 40.7 6.6 11.6 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.4 12.7 9.9 84.3 58.6 42.4 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.3 6.0 8.9 81.6 56.7 42.0 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.4 9.0 9.6 80.1 55.9 44.5 4.5 7.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.3 12.0 10.2 73.8 53.7 41.6 6.1 10.8 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.9 12.1 9.8 77.0 56.6 39.5 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.3 10.3 83.5 59.5 45.3 4.1 8.2 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.9 10.2 9.8 78.2 57.0 42.4 3.6 7.9 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 5.6 15.6 10.3 83.8 60.3 43.0 6.0 11.3 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 8.6 18.3 11.1 74.3 52.4 38.9 9.8 17.1 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.4 5.9 8.6 76.9 55.4 41.7 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------