***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.4 7.5 9.8 112.2 68.3 47.8 2.1 4.1 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.9 10.3 9.7 109.3 67.8 47.8 2.4 5.3 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.8 10.1 104.3 66.6 46.2 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.2 16.0 10.7 95.0 63.9 45.9 4.9 9.9 17.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.5 8.7 9.7 87.3 60.9 44.2 3.4 6.2 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.7 11.7 11.7 98.9 65.0 48.0 3.4 6.9 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.9 10.3 9.3 107.0 67.2 46.7 2.4 5.4 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.4 13.6 10.8 87.3 60.4 46.1 5.3 9.8 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.9 10.1 90.2 61.7 45.1 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.3 11.0 88.9 60.9 45.8 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.6 9.7 90.0 61.7 45.9 2.5 5.1 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.5 9.8 90.1 61.6 46.0 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.6 11.0 10.8 97.4 64.3 47.4 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.5 13.4 12.0 92.9 62.7 45.5 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.8 12.0 10.8 106.5 67.7 45.5 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.9 9.9 10.4 99.6 65.2 47.6 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.8 9.7 106.7 66.8 46.6 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.0 12.0 92.1 62.2 46.7 3.7 7.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.3 10.6 10.1 108.7 67.6 47.9 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.8 13.5 13.4 87.0 60.7 46.9 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.4 9.3 9.4 94.2 63.0 45.0 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.5 9.5 93.7 63.1 44.9 2.9 6.0 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.0 10.2 10.5 104.3 66.1 46.8 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.2 9.4 11.6 99.6 64.9 46.7 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.1 10.1 9.5 95.6 63.4 44.4 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.8 10.6 95.2 63.6 47.3 3.9 7.6 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.8 9.0 10.0 108.8 67.4 47.2 2.5 4.9 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.6 10.1 11.1 106.4 67.3 47.2 2.4 5.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.7 15.3 12.7 94.2 62.9 47.5 5.6 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.9 9.2 9.5 103.1 66.2 46.6 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------