***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.4 10.5 9.3 99.5 66.0 42.2 2.2 5.3 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.0 12.0 8.9 110.6 68.5 43.7 2.9 6.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.8 11.5 9.2 94.4 64.4 41.9 2.7 6.5 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.2 11.1 8.5 79.6 59.8 39.2 3.1 7.3 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.2 10.2 8.1 83.5 61.0 40.0 3.2 6.7 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.5 8.3 7.0 62.5 51.0 35.1 3.7 7.9 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.3 11.1 9.2 118.5 70.4 43.5 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.4 14.7 8.8 88.7 61.9 40.3 4.3 9.4 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.4 11.7 8.8 89.4 63.3 40.8 3.3 7.0 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.7 12.5 9.1 88.9 62.1 40.3 3.6 7.9 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.0 9.5 7.5 80.8 59.6 38.5 3.1 6.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.6 8.6 7.1 77.5 58.0 37.8 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.2 8.4 7.2 69.8 54.5 37.4 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.0 16.0 10.2 92.9 63.2 42.0 4.0 9.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.7 7.7 7.4 70.3 57.0 37.9 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 2.3 7.7 7.0 72.4 56.5 37.7 2.4 5.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.2 8.7 10.1 117.8 70.5 44.8 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.9 14.2 9.9 92.3 62.5 41.8 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.9 12.3 8.6 102.1 66.2 42.5 2.5 6.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.0 12.7 12.2 106.2 66.7 45.6 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.5 11.7 9.0 90.9 63.6 41.0 3.3 7.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.5 10.0 9.5 102.2 66.4 42.5 2.6 5.6 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.8 11.3 8.7 94.7 64.0 41.4 2.7 6.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.7 14.8 9.5 91.1 62.6 40.9 3.8 8.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.3 11.5 9.7 92.8 63.8 40.8 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.4 8.8 7.2 73.3 54.9 35.9 3.5 7.4 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.7 10.1 9.4 98.1 65.2 41.8 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.3 6.8 7.5 71.4 57.0 38.0 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 5.5 18.5 10.4 95.2 63.2 42.9 5.4 11.3 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.6 10.5 8.7 104.7 67.1 43.3 2.4 5.5 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------