***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 37.5 46.0 52.0 114.4 66.6 59.4 21.4 32.4 45.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 38.3 43.4 45.7 111.5 65.0 56.1 22.7 32.6 44.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 44.7 47.7 47.6 103.3 60.3 53.6 29.3 40.2 52.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 65.1 64.5 49.7 94.6 56.0 50.6 42.0 58.0 76.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 46.6 46.5 46.4 96.6 56.9 50.8 29.9 41.3 54.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 50.8 50.1 48.6 94.6 55.8 51.6 32.4 45.1 59.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 21.2 45.7 46.8 114.1 66.7 56.5 21.0 31.8 45.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 68.1 68.1 50.4 98.7 57.2 51.1 46.9 61.4 77.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 45.8 47.5 48.8 100.5 58.9 52.7 29.7 40.9 53.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 53.4 54.2 52.5 100.3 58.2 52.0 36.2 48.1 61.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 45.7 44.8 45.7 96.4 56.4 50.5 28.3 39.7 53.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 44.3 44.2 44.4 96.3 56.3 50.6 27.5 39.0 52.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 48.4 48.3 47.6 96.5 56.4 51.4 30.7 43.2 57.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 63.4 63.8 55.3 101.1 58.0 52.6 41.5 56.0 72.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 43.6 46.8 50.3 98.4 59.4 52.4 24.0 37.3 54.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 41.1 39.4 44.7 94.1 55.0 49.5 24.4 35.7 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 17.1 36.0 45.9 110.6 64.4 54.2 16.8 26.0 37.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 55.4 56.9 55.4 101.0 58.4 52.5 35.5 49.3 65.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 41.9 45.9 45.9 108.4 63.0 55.0 24.6 35.6 48.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 60.4 59.8 59.7 100.0 57.1 51.1 41.2 54.1 68.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 44.8 48.7 48.7 103.4 60.7 54.0 28.2 39.8 53.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 21.4 38.1 44.4 102.4 58.2 51.2 21.9 32.3 44.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 44.6 47.9 47.8 106.1 61.5 54.7 28.6 39.4 51.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 53.4 54.5 51.3 99.6 57.7 51.7 33.3 47.1 63.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 46.4 55.1 56.2 112.0 65.4 58.5 28.6 41.0 55.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 46.0 45.0 43.6 93.3 54.8 50.7 28.7 40.9 55.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 40.7 50.6 55.3 116.8 67.9 60.4 23.6 35.1 48.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 43.3 43.3 47.8 94.2 56.4 50.4 26.3 38.2 52.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 78.6 79.0 56.5 99.9 57.4 51.6 51.9 70.1 91.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 35.5 39.4 46.3 109.1 63.5 55.4 20.6 30.2 41.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------