***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 12.2 13.7 15.1 2.9 92.1 88.8 9.8 10.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 12.6 13.7 14.3 2.4 88.0 84.2 9.9 11.0 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 14.4 15.5 14.7 2.4 88.8 85.1 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 10.6 12.9 12.8 3.0 95.6 93.2 7.5 8.6 9.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 11.7 13.9 13.1 2.9 94.7 91.5 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 10.5 12.3 11.0 2.9 94.2 92.8 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 12.5 13.6 14.5 2.5 88.7 85.3 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 6.8 8.6 11.1 2.8 94.0 91.4 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 12.5 14.9 13.6 3.1 96.0 92.7 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 11.9 13.6 12.0 2.9 94.5 91.5 9.6 10.5 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 11.7 13.7 12.6 2.9 94.9 92.2 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 10.9 12.7 11.9 2.8 94.1 91.9 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 11.3 12.9 11.7 2.7 92.7 90.9 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 12.4 13.3 12.8 2.3 88.3 85.0 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 12.4 14.5 14.7 3.3 96.9 95.2 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 12.5 14.1 12.3 2.8 94.2 92.1 10.1 10.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 12.5 13.4 13.8 2.3 87.3 83.4 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 11.1 12.6 11.0 2.6 92.2 89.1 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 12.3 13.3 14.3 2.3 87.5 83.6 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 7.2 8.5 9.2 2.5 91.9 89.0 5.0 5.8 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 12.3 14.2 14.6 2.7 93.0 89.3 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 11.3 12.0 13.8 1.9 83.1 79.4 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 12.0 13.0 14.2 2.3 87.0 83.3 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 11.8 12.9 12.9 2.4 90.5 87.0 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 13.1 15.1 14.5 3.1 94.3 91.1 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 11.3 12.3 11.1 2.6 90.2 88.6 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 13.7 16.1 14.8 3.2 93.6 90.9 10.0 11.4 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.2 13.2 3.0 95.0 93.0 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 10.5 12.2 10.4 2.6 92.8 89.7 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 12.9 14.2 14.7 2.5 88.6 85.0 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------