***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 11.2 11.9 14.1 2.2 79.8 76.6 8.6 9.7 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 11.4 12.0 13.7 2.0 78.8 75.8 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 13.3 14.0 13.8 2.1 80.6 77.4 10.8 11.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 9.1 9.8 11.5 2.0 80.9 77.8 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 10.5 11.1 11.3 2.0 80.1 77.3 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 9.6 10.2 9.7 2.1 81.5 78.9 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 11.3 11.8 13.6 1.9 77.6 74.8 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 5.1 5.7 9.8 2.1 82.6 80.3 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 11.5 12.0 11.7 2.1 80.0 77.5 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 11.0 11.5 10.4 2.1 81.1 78.7 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 10.8 11.3 10.8 2.0 80.3 77.6 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 9.6 10.0 10.5 2.0 80.5 78.1 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 10.1 10.4 9.8 1.8 77.2 74.7 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 11.6 12.1 11.8 2.0 80.7 77.7 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 11.5 12.1 12.0 2.0 81.7 78.7 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 11.5 11.8 10.4 1.8 78.4 75.7 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 11.2 11.7 13.1 1.9 77.6 74.7 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 10.0 10.5 9.9 2.0 80.5 78.1 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 11.3 12.0 13.7 2.1 80.3 77.1 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 6.1 6.6 8.3 2.1 80.6 78.4 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 11.0 11.7 13.1 2.2 80.9 77.9 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 10.2 10.8 13.1 1.9 78.2 75.3 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 10.8 11.5 13.4 2.1 81.5 78.1 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 10.9 11.4 11.7 2.0 80.9 78.1 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 11.5 12.4 12.7 2.2 82.3 79.0 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 10.1 10.3 10.1 1.7 77.2 74.8 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 11.9 12.9 13.3 2.2 80.5 77.3 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 9.9 10.4 11.5 1.9 79.6 76.7 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 9.1 9.6 9.3 2.0 80.6 78.3 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 11.8 12.4 13.9 2.0 79.0 76.0 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------