***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.5 11.4 0.8 60.5 57.6 7.5 8.8 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.5 9.4 11.0 0.6 59.5 56.2 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.5 11.2 0.7 60.5 57.8 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.1 8.8 0.6 59.2 57.7 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 9.4 8.8 8.8 0.7 61.0 59.1 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 8.4 8.1 7.3 0.9 63.5 61.6 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 7.7 9.4 11.0 0.7 59.4 56.1 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 4.7 4.4 7.6 1.0 64.9 62.4 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 10.3 9.9 9.4 0.8 62.6 60.0 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 9.8 9.5 8.1 0.9 63.7 61.3 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 9.3 8.9 8.5 0.8 62.8 60.9 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 8.2 8.0 8.4 1.0 65.2 62.9 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.6 7.9 1.0 64.6 62.8 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.8 9.4 0.8 62.7 59.7 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 10.2 9.8 9.3 0.6 60.3 58.3 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 10.3 9.9 8.2 0.8 62.7 61.1 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.6 10.5 0.6 58.6 55.1 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.4 7.7 0.9 63.7 61.1 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 7.7 9.5 11.1 0.7 60.4 57.2 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 5.2 4.9 6.1 0.9 62.8 60.7 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.1 10.5 0.8 61.5 58.9 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.9 8.6 10.5 0.6 59.3 55.8 7.1 8.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.1 10.9 0.8 61.9 58.6 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 9.2 8.8 9.4 0.8 62.9 60.1 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.8 9.9 0.7 60.7 58.3 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 9.0 8.8 8.1 1.0 64.6 62.6 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.0 10.6 0.8 61.2 58.2 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.0 8.9 0.6 59.3 57.8 6.4 7.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 8.3 7.9 7.2 1.0 64.1 61.5 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.8 11.3 0.7 59.8 56.7 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------