***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 23.3 23.6 22.1 0.6 58.5 57.6 21.5 22.9 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 23.6 23.1 21.7 -0.2 48.1 48.2 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 23.9 23.4 21.5 -0.1 48.9 49.1 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 16.5 16.9 19.5 0.5 57.6 57.1 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 24.2 24.0 20.1 0.2 52.2 52.1 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 23.3 23.8 18.6 0.8 60.3 59.8 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 23.2 23.0 21.9 0.2 51.9 51.7 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 13.0 12.5 17.9 -0.1 48.4 48.7 11.0 12.6 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 24.0 23.7 20.8 0.1 52.0 51.8 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 23.6 23.0 18.9 -0.1 48.7 49.0 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 23.9 23.6 19.7 0.0 50.5 50.6 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 23.2 22.7 18.9 0.0 49.4 49.6 21.1 22.8 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 24.2 23.9 19.4 0.1 50.7 50.9 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.0 22.2 19.4 -1.0 38.1 39.3 21.6 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 23.7 24.4 21.7 0.8 62.3 61.3 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 24.8 24.6 19.7 0.2 52.0 52.1 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 22.8 21.9 20.9 -0.5 43.8 44.3 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 22.9 21.8 17.8 -0.5 44.3 44.9 20.7 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 23.6 22.8 21.5 -0.3 46.5 46.9 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 18.8 18.1 16.1 -0.3 46.1 46.6 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 23.9 23.7 21.5 0.2 52.6 52.4 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 23.7 22.3 20.6 -0.8 39.8 40.6 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 23.8 22.8 21.1 -0.4 45.4 45.9 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 23.7 22.4 19.5 -0.6 42.2 43.0 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 23.3 23.9 21.0 0.9 61.4 60.3 21.6 23.0 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 23.7 23.3 18.6 -0.1 48.7 49.0 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 23.4 23.9 21.7 0.9 61.4 60.3 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 23.8 24.1 20.4 0.5 56.6 56.2 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 18.3 17.2 17.1 -0.5 43.8 44.5 16.1 17.8 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 23.5 23.2 21.9 0.1 51.3 51.2 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------