***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 20.9 20.9 19.2 0.5 56.2 53.8 18.9 20.4 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 21.2 21.0 19.2 0.4 54.3 52.8 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 21.4 21.3 19.2 0.4 55.3 53.3 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.9 16.9 0.2 52.3 50.9 11.9 13.7 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.1 17.3 0.3 53.6 52.0 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 21.0 20.7 16.0 0.3 53.0 52.1 18.8 20.4 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 20.9 20.7 19.1 0.4 54.5 52.8 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.4 16.2 0.3 53.7 52.2 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.3 18.0 0.4 55.1 53.0 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 21.0 20.8 16.9 0.4 54.2 52.6 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 21.5 21.2 17.2 0.3 53.5 52.0 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.1 20.8 17.0 0.2 52.9 51.6 18.8 20.5 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.5 16.6 0.1 51.2 50.7 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.6 17.9 0.4 54.2 52.8 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 20.7 20.3 17.0 0.1 51.7 50.2 18.7 20.2 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.0 16.9 0.2 52.1 51.1 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 20.7 20.1 18.6 0.0 50.5 50.0 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 20.3 20.2 16.5 0.4 54.3 52.8 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.0 20.9 19.3 0.4 55.0 53.3 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.2 14.5 0.3 53.7 52.5 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 21.3 21.2 18.6 0.4 55.4 53.3 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.9 18.6 0.1 50.9 50.3 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.4 19.3 0.5 56.1 54.1 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.3 17.9 0.4 54.7 53.0 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.6 17.5 0.4 55.5 53.3 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.2 16.5 0.0 50.0 49.7 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 21.1 21.1 18.4 0.5 56.2 53.9 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 21.0 20.5 17.0 0.1 51.7 50.4 18.6 20.3 21.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.3 15.7 0.4 54.2 52.9 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 20.9 20.8 19.3 0.4 55.2 53.4 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------