***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 16.2 18.1 17.7 0.0 50.1 50.4 16.4 18.1 19.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 16.4 18.3 17.8 0.0 49.8 50.0 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.4 18.3 17.8 0.0 49.5 50.0 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.8 15.5 -0.3 45.8 47.1 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 19.0 18.2 16.1 -0.1 48.5 49.3 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 15.5 17.9 15.0 0.2 52.6 52.1 15.8 17.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 18.6 17.9 17.7 0.0 50.1 50.3 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.8 9.4 15.2 0.3 53.7 52.8 7.2 9.0 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 16.3 18.4 16.7 0.0 50.6 50.9 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 15.9 18.2 15.8 0.2 52.2 51.9 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 16.3 18.3 16.0 0.0 50.1 50.5 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 15.8 18.0 15.9 0.2 52.2 51.9 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 16.4 18.5 15.5 0.1 50.8 51.2 16.7 18.5 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 16.7 19.0 16.7 0.1 51.3 50.8 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.0 15.7 -0.4 44.9 46.3 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 19.7 18.8 15.7 -0.1 49.2 49.9 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.7 17.6 17.3 -0.2 47.8 48.5 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 15.5 17.7 15.5 0.3 53.6 52.8 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 16.2 18.2 17.9 0.0 50.2 50.2 16.6 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 12.3 15.3 13.6 0.5 56.3 54.5 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 16.3 18.2 17.3 0.0 49.8 50.3 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 16.4 18.3 17.4 -0.1 48.2 48.5 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 16.4 18.6 17.9 0.1 51.2 50.8 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 16.3 18.7 16.7 0.1 51.5 51.3 16.8 18.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 18.4 17.7 16.1 -0.1 48.9 49.5 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 18.8 18.2 15.4 0.1 51.0 51.3 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 16.2 18.2 16.9 0.0 50.3 50.6 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 18.5 17.4 15.7 -0.3 45.5 46.8 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.5 14.2 14.8 0.4 54.8 53.6 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 18.7 18.0 17.9 0.0 50.0 50.2 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------