***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 20.9 21.2 20.2 0.7 61.7 59.5 19.9 20.7 21.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 21.2 21.3 20.1 0.4 56.5 55.2 20.3 21.0 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 21.4 21.4 20.0 0.4 56.6 55.2 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.2 17.9 0.3 55.9 54.6 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 21.5 21.5 18.4 0.3 56.4 54.7 20.5 21.2 22.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 20.7 21.0 17.0 0.6 61.2 58.9 19.6 20.5 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 20.8 21.0 20.2 0.5 58.6 57.0 19.9 20.6 21.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.4 17.0 0.4 58.2 55.5 10.2 11.0 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 21.4 21.5 19.0 0.5 58.4 56.2 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.1 21.1 17.8 0.4 57.6 55.3 19.9 20.8 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 21.4 21.5 18.2 0.4 56.7 54.7 20.4 21.2 21.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 20.9 20.9 17.9 0.4 57.0 54.8 19.7 20.6 21.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 21.7 21.7 17.7 0.3 55.7 54.3 20.6 21.5 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 21.7 21.6 18.6 0.2 52.7 51.7 20.5 21.4 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 20.9 20.9 18.5 0.3 56.6 55.2 19.9 20.6 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 22.2 22.2 18.0 0.3 55.8 54.2 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 20.6 20.4 19.6 0.1 52.3 51.8 19.6 20.3 21.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 20.5 20.5 17.2 0.4 56.8 54.7 19.4 20.2 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 21.1 21.1 20.2 0.4 56.3 54.9 20.1 20.8 21.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.3 15.3 0.5 59.4 56.6 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 21.3 21.4 19.7 0.5 58.4 56.5 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 21.3 21.1 19.5 0.0 50.8 50.3 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.4 20.0 0.4 56.6 55.0 20.3 21.1 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.4 18.6 0.3 54.7 53.3 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 20.7 21.0 18.7 0.7 61.6 59.5 19.9 20.5 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 21.4 21.3 17.5 0.2 54.5 53.3 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 21.0 21.3 19.6 0.8 63.3 60.8 20.1 20.8 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 21.2 21.1 18.2 0.2 54.7 53.5 19.9 20.9 21.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.4 16.4 0.4 57.6 55.4 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 21.0 21.1 20.3 0.5 58.2 56.6 20.0 20.7 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------