***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 16.5 30.4 23.0 251.1 90.0 83.3 3.4 6.9 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 12.9 24.4 21.8 256.5 91.2 81.8 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 16.0 30.4 24.8 279.1 92.4 85.0 4.0 7.3 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 21.2 49.2 32.6 326.4 94.7 87.8 4.0 8.3 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 13.9 30.5 32.6 295.5 94.1 87.8 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 11.7 22.8 33.9 281.2 92.1 85.7 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 12.6 24.8 22.5 263.9 91.5 80.8 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 23.5 53.8 35.2 325.6 95.0 88.3 5.1 9.9 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 14.2 29.2 30.3 294.9 93.4 88.4 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 17.9 40.6 35.2 316.9 94.7 89.6 3.3 6.7 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 11.5 28.5 32.0 353.9 95.9 89.9 2.3 4.7 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 12.4 29.1 30.4 321.0 94.7 87.9 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 14.4 35.4 35.0 306.3 95.3 89.2 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 21.3 43.1 29.6 275.9 92.0 84.2 3.8 8.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 13.0 32.9 34.4 328.2 95.1 85.6 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 12.8 29.4 32.2 310.0 94.8 88.2 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 11.7 23.5 20.3 260.1 91.5 79.8 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 20.3 42.9 34.5 278.3 92.8 87.8 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 13.6 26.3 22.0 256.7 91.0 82.0 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 21.4 41.9 34.5 246.5 90.3 84.6 2.9 7.2 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 15.2 31.0 25.8 285.4 92.8 86.5 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 12.2 22.1 19.6 229.6 89.0 77.9 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 16.4 33.3 23.9 272.0 91.8 82.2 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 18.3 37.5 29.6 281.9 92.7 86.6 3.5 7.3 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 15.7 28.7 29.1 254.8 91.4 84.1 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 14.0 33.2 35.5 317.0 95.5 90.8 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 15.2 26.6 26.4 246.0 90.0 83.1 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 12.8 30.4 31.9 306.0 94.3 86.4 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 30.3 58.7 32.5 260.0 91.5 85.6 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 11.6 22.6 22.9 259.6 91.2 82.4 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------