***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.8 10.3 91.8 63.2 43.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.6 7.3 10.3 84.4 60.1 43.6 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.3 10.3 83.7 59.4 42.7 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.8 25.1 14.7 110.4 68.8 49.3 6.7 13.4 22.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.9 16.7 13.1 106.3 67.0 46.5 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.7 18.2 17.6 117.2 70.3 54.6 3.9 8.5 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.7 10.9 91.3 62.4 44.9 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.8 24.2 14.4 130.3 73.0 53.1 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.7 14.7 13.5 112.6 68.9 49.0 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.9 19.8 14.7 122.7 71.2 51.4 5.7 10.4 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.5 19.3 11.2 117.0 70.1 49.0 5.5 10.3 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.2 18.2 11.8 132.0 73.6 52.7 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.0 15.9 13.9 120.0 71.1 53.4 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.3 14.9 13.8 91.0 62.5 48.0 5.9 10.3 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.2 20.8 16.7 122.5 71.9 50.0 4.0 8.8 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.2 13.0 12.5 115.8 69.9 51.4 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.4 7.0 10.3 85.8 60.6 43.4 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 17.0 17.5 127.8 72.5 56.8 5.4 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.5 9.8 79.6 58.2 43.4 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 17.2 20.4 22.7 144.4 76.3 61.3 5.4 9.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.7 14.3 11.6 101.8 65.8 45.8 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.0 10.0 78.8 57.3 44.1 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.6 9.9 77.8 57.5 43.6 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.3 14.7 13.9 100.7 65.2 49.9 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.1 13.4 12.8 92.7 63.0 44.1 4.0 8.4 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.9 16.9 12.9 119.1 71.0 52.2 3.2 7.3 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.4 11.1 12.1 93.3 63.2 44.1 3.2 6.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.9 20.6 15.2 116.0 70.4 50.4 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.9 27.7 18.6 128.7 72.7 57.3 8.4 14.8 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.9 10.3 85.5 60.4 43.8 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------