***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 11.1 10.1 110.1 68.0 50.0 2.6 5.7 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.6 12.1 9.9 99.6 64.9 48.6 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.9 11.8 9.8 103.1 66.0 48.6 3.3 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 20.5 15.1 139.1 75.3 55.7 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.8 13.0 13.4 126.5 72.4 51.7 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.9 16.6 18.1 137.2 74.8 55.6 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.0 11.0 10.1 100.2 65.2 49.6 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.3 22.0 17.0 146.0 76.6 53.5 6.3 10.8 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.1 14.4 13.0 123.0 71.8 52.8 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.4 16.0 15.4 133.7 74.0 52.4 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.1 13.7 13.4 137.8 74.9 50.8 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.9 17.3 14.6 148.4 77.2 52.5 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.6 17.4 15.7 141.0 75.7 54.4 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.6 18.7 13.6 110.1 67.6 50.8 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.9 14.3 16.6 149.6 77.4 57.1 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.9 15.7 14.6 144.7 76.4 53.8 2.5 5.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.3 9.4 10.5 98.3 65.4 49.2 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 19.5 16.7 132.6 73.6 53.5 4.0 8.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.5 9.8 99.7 64.6 48.4 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 25.2 22.2 145.1 76.5 56.7 5.8 10.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.2 13.9 11.1 114.6 69.7 51.3 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.9 10.3 91.3 62.8 46.9 2.8 6.1 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.7 12.1 10.2 104.0 65.9 49.9 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.6 16.7 13.3 116.3 69.5 50.4 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.9 13.9 12.7 116.8 70.0 52.8 4.7 8.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.7 17.3 16.1 145.8 76.8 55.7 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.5 11.2 11.6 111.1 68.3 51.6 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.5 12.7 16.3 149.7 77.4 56.3 2.1 4.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 16.9 26.6 18.1 137.4 74.7 55.1 7.2 12.8 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.6 9.7 100.8 65.1 49.1 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------