***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 1.7 10.0 10.5 139.8 75.4 45.6 2.0 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.3 11.0 10.5 137.6 74.9 46.3 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.3 13.7 10.6 141.6 75.7 48.5 2.1 4.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.4 20.1 12.5 143.8 76.2 51.0 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.3 15.6 11.4 134.2 74.1 49.6 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.8 14.7 12.4 109.6 68.0 49.0 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 1.6 9.9 10.6 134.8 74.3 46.8 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.8 19.0 11.3 110.8 68.5 48.5 5.3 10.4 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.5 15.7 11.6 136.7 74.7 49.6 3.1 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.1 17.2 11.7 120.0 70.7 49.8 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.7 14.5 10.0 122.9 71.4 48.5 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.6 13.7 9.6 116.3 70.1 48.8 3.1 6.7 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.1 14.9 10.5 112.1 69.1 49.7 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.1 19.9 12.7 124.2 71.6 50.2 4.1 8.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.8 17.6 14.2 160.1 79.3 51.8 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.3 13.4 10.3 123.1 71.6 50.3 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.0 9.6 10.3 131.5 73.5 45.8 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 17.1 12.8 116.2 69.6 51.8 4.7 9.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.4 14.1 10.7 142.2 75.8 47.7 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.0 14.9 15.3 107.3 67.2 51.1 4.4 8.5 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.0 13.5 10.5 138.0 75.1 47.4 3.1 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.1 10.4 10.9 138.1 75.1 47.8 2.2 4.5 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.4 15.0 11.0 142.4 75.9 49.9 2.1 5.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.7 16.2 11.9 124.7 71.9 50.9 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.4 13.2 11.8 133.7 74.2 48.6 2.4 5.5 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.0 13.3 10.3 105.2 67.7 48.4 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 2.1 11.2 11.4 132.7 73.9 47.0 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.1 15.0 12.8 148.2 77.0 51.4 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.5 21.0 13.4 112.3 68.5 50.9 5.9 11.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 1.9 11.5 10.8 142.7 76.0 47.5 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------