***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 49.9 58.2 53.9 145.7 77.6 68.3 20.4 31.3 44.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 47.1 52.7 52.5 137.2 75.5 66.6 20.1 30.2 42.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 56.3 64.4 55.5 145.3 78.0 69.0 27.0 38.2 51.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 85.6 106.0 74.9 174.8 84.0 75.7 41.2 57.0 74.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 61.3 76.0 70.4 166.0 83.6 75.2 29.1 40.5 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 64.1 78.5 81.9 159.1 81.7 74.5 28.7 41.5 56.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 48.5 55.6 54.1 140.8 76.5 67.7 18.2 29.2 42.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 84.6 110.3 77.8 179.2 87.4 78.0 46.0 60.2 76.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 57.9 71.9 68.3 165.6 82.9 75.2 27.7 38.8 51.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 68.0 88.0 77.0 173.9 86.0 77.4 36.2 48.3 61.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 60.9 80.2 66.6 182.3 86.6 78.4 27.8 39.1 52.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 60.4 81.3 66.4 181.6 86.7 77.6 27.5 38.8 52.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 65.1 85.0 75.1 172.6 86.1 77.4 29.2 41.4 55.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 79.4 90.9 69.7 143.8 78.0 69.0 39.9 55.0 72.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 64.2 89.2 81.9 185.9 86.5 76.0 23.3 36.3 52.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 56.0 74.8 69.5 175.5 86.6 77.2 24.7 35.3 47.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 40.6 44.9 51.4 134.1 74.1 66.7 15.3 24.8 36.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 71.5 92.6 81.4 163.9 84.1 74.8 34.7 48.7 64.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 51.5 57.5 52.3 136.7 75.4 66.6 22.4 33.6 47.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 76.0 94.6 94.7 160.4 84.0 73.9 40.3 53.7 69.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 58.4 69.8 59.0 156.4 80.3 72.1 26.2 37.8 51.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 45.0 47.5 50.9 125.9 71.4 64.0 17.6 28.1 41.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 55.3 62.3 55.1 140.9 76.6 68.0 26.6 37.6 50.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 69.0 83.7 68.7 151.3 80.3 70.7 32.5 46.4 62.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 60.6 69.7 66.3 147.9 78.6 70.0 26.6 38.9 53.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 63.9 85.3 74.8 174.7 86.1 78.4 26.8 39.2 54.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 51.8 60.0 61.5 144.0 77.4 68.5 22.5 33.6 46.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 60.1 77.4 76.2 177.3 85.0 75.6 26.1 37.7 51.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 99.9 125.1 82.6 158.7 83.0 72.8 51.8 70.4 91.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 45.2 51.3 53.8 141.0 76.8 67.4 19.8 29.4 40.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------