***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.8 11.7 1.0 64.3 60.2 7.5 8.8 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.6 10.9 0.7 61.3 58.2 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.7 11.6 0.8 63.0 59.7 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 6.9 7.4 8.8 0.8 63.3 60.6 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.7 8.9 0.6 59.6 57.7 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.1 7.5 0.7 62.6 60.2 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.6 11.0 0.8 61.8 58.7 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.1 7.4 0.6 59.8 58.2 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.6 9.2 0.5 58.9 57.1 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.2 7.9 0.5 59.2 57.5 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.6 8.3 0.4 57.2 56.0 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.5 7.8 0.4 56.9 56.0 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.3 7.8 7.1 0.2 53.8 53.5 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.5 9.1 0.5 58.7 57.5 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.0 9.9 0.8 64.4 61.5 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.5 7.7 0.4 56.1 55.1 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.7 10.6 0.7 60.4 57.6 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.0 7.0 0.4 57.3 56.3 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.5 11.0 0.7 61.2 58.4 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.5 5.5 0.4 56.7 56.1 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.1 10.7 0.7 62.0 59.0 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.7 10.5 0.7 60.7 58.2 7.1 8.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.1 11.0 0.7 61.1 58.9 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.6 8.8 0.5 59.3 57.6 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.2 10.5 1.0 65.2 61.4 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.4 7.1 0.4 56.7 55.9 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.3 11.1 1.0 64.2 60.3 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 8.6 8.3 8.9 0.8 63.2 60.8 6.4 7.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.4 6.6 0.4 56.3 56.0 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.0 11.3 0.8 62.2 59.0 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------