***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.9 6.8 9.7 0.0 50.6 50.2 5.3 6.7 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.8 6.7 9.3 0.0 50.6 49.9 5.2 6.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.0 9.8 0.1 50.9 50.5 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 4.7 3.9 6.8 -0.2 47.5 48.0 2.9 4.1 5.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.7 7.1 -0.2 46.9 47.6 4.6 5.9 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.2 5.6 -0.1 48.9 49.5 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.6 9.3 0.0 49.8 49.3 5.4 6.6 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -0.4 1.2 5.6 -0.1 48.2 49.1 -0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.5 6.7 7.5 -0.2 47.8 48.3 5.7 6.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.5 6.1 -0.1 48.0 48.7 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.9 5.9 6.5 -0.3 45.3 46.6 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.9 6.0 -0.3 46.1 47.4 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.2 5.4 -0.4 43.7 45.5 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.8 7.0 7.5 -0.1 49.2 49.3 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.6 6.7 7.9 -0.2 47.3 47.6 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.8 6.8 6.0 -0.4 44.7 46.2 6.0 7.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 5.2 6.6 9.0 0.0 50.3 49.5 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.4 5.4 -0.2 47.1 48.1 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.1 6.8 9.4 0.1 51.0 50.3 5.4 6.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.5 1.8 3.9 -0.3 46.2 47.8 0.7 2.0 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.5 8.9 0.0 49.7 49.7 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.4 5.9 9.0 0.0 50.5 49.8 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.6 9.3 0.1 51.0 50.5 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.1 7.2 -0.1 48.5 49.0 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.3 7.0 8.5 0.0 49.9 49.7 5.6 7.0 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.9 5.8 5.4 -0.3 46.1 47.4 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.6 6.9 9.1 0.0 49.7 49.4 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.9 6.9 -0.2 47.0 47.4 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.6 5.0 -0.3 46.1 47.5 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.3 6.9 9.5 0.0 50.3 49.8 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------