***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 10.0 10.8 12.8 1.8 85.3 78.5 8.2 9.0 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 10.0 10.7 12.0 1.5 81.6 75.0 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 12.0 12.5 12.7 1.6 83.5 77.0 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 7.3 7.7 9.6 1.3 79.6 74.2 6.0 6.6 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 9.2 9.8 10.2 1.3 79.5 74.0 7.3 8.1 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 8.2 8.8 8.2 1.3 82.0 76.0 6.7 7.4 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 9.9 10.5 12.2 1.6 83.0 76.5 8.5 9.1 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 4.1 4.4 8.2 1.2 78.2 72.6 2.8 3.4 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.4 10.3 1.2 78.0 72.6 8.4 9.2 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 9.6 10.0 8.8 1.1 77.6 71.9 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 9.1 9.4 9.5 1.0 74.4 69.4 7.6 8.4 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 8.1 8.5 8.9 1.1 77.3 71.8 6.7 7.3 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 8.6 8.8 8.3 0.9 72.0 66.8 7.1 7.9 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 10.1 10.5 10.2 1.3 79.9 73.8 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 9.9 10.1 10.9 1.1 77.1 72.3 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 10.0 10.4 9.0 1.0 75.1 69.7 8.6 9.3 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 9.9 10.4 11.7 1.4 81.2 74.6 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 8.6 9.0 8.2 1.2 77.6 71.7 7.0 7.8 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 9.9 10.4 12.1 1.5 81.4 74.8 8.4 9.1 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 4.9 5.3 6.7 1.2 76.5 71.2 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 9.8 10.4 11.8 1.5 82.4 76.1 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 9.0 9.5 11.7 1.4 81.1 74.6 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 9.6 10.1 12.0 1.4 80.6 74.5 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 9.2 9.6 10.1 1.3 79.7 73.9 8.0 8.6 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 10.4 11.3 11.7 1.7 84.7 78.3 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 8.8 9.2 8.3 1.2 78.3 72.5 7.5 8.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 10.7 11.8 12.3 1.8 85.9 79.1 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 8.4 8.8 9.8 1.2 78.6 73.2 6.9 7.5 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 7.7 8.0 7.6 1.1 75.5 70.3 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 10.3 11.0 12.4 1.5 82.4 75.9 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------